HEDLines – Archive

There have been some new signals in Grains after quite a long period of sideways activity. The outlook has been mixed for some time and reports of continued shifts in consumption patterns in Asia meant the possibility that a bubble…

This longer piece is about the steps in the journey taken by Greece since the troubles in Europe began and illustrates our overall approach to markets. The first chart is made from monthly data and shows the whole decline from…

The large moves in markets yesterday seem to have resolved a number of compressions. The US bond market has been compressed at a weekly scale and the rise in price/drop in yields in yesterday’s session has broken that compression. This…

The main feature of the investment world is that we are seeing many, many compressions in Equity indices on a daily scale to go with the weekly-scale compressions that already exist in the US Dow transport index and in US…

The dominant influences on Equity markets that we can see are two – firstly the continued compression in the Dow transport index, which made yet another weekly-scale signal last week: This latest compression was produced at the 'tightest' setting that…

  There are no turns of any great size due in equities this month, as we remarked at the last turn update. There are some smaller events though: A smallish Dow Industrials long-term turn due today, November 5th, that is…

A bond turn is due today, or perhaps was due yesterday. This comes at a time when bonds are compressed at both daily and weekly scales which means they are finely balanced on a knife edge and could go up…

One of the China equity indices that we follow compressed at a daily scale on Thursday and fell away from that compressed area on Friday, as shown in the second of these two charts. The first chart shows the weekly…

Ten and five year US treasury notes made daily-scale compressions last week and moved down, as did Euro bunds a day earlier. Charts:   This comes at a time when weekly-scale compressions have also formed in all of these instruments,…

Stocks turned back down from the resistance area identified in the Oct 18th edition and are now in support, mainly in Europe. This large amount of churning conceals some considerable divergence as the different magnitude of the moves in different…