Richard Edwards | HED Capital Management

Long-term Bond update and notes on Gold and energy

April 20, 2021 Richard Edwards

There has been much debate about the next direction in bond markets. Some think that an uptick in inflation is imminent for a variety of reasons, including the planned extra fiscal stimulus to a US an economy that is already…

HEDLines - Archive

Top extensions in some stock indices.

April 13, 2021 Richard Edwards

Three US indices have made top extensions at a daily scale in the last 2 trading days. This comes after a brisk rise from some compressions reported in the last edition and probably signals the imminent end of this ‘leg’…

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US stocks move up from compression, FTSE too. Europe makes top. Crude compresses.

April 6, 2021 Richard Edwards

US indices are still divided. The rally of the last few days has pushed the S&P 500 and Dow to new highs in the last few days while the Mid-cap is still a little below the highs made in mid…

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Dow makes a top extension, Nasdaq makes a compression. Look out!

March 19, 2021 Richard Edwards

The strange divergence between the three main US stock indices is about to resolve. We pointed out in the last edition that the S&P was range-trading, the Dow was trending up and the Nasdaq was in an (interrupted) downtrend. Now…

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Commodities & a note on stocks

March 15, 2021 Richard Edwards

We have been sceptical of the prospects for more commodity strength. Here are the reasons, in descending order of time frame. Firstly, at a monthly scale, where bottom extensions in Spring 2020 signalled the end of the big drop. Since…

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Stocks drop, top extensions in commodities, bottoms in bonds

February 23, 2021 Richard Edwards

US stocks are falling away from the top extensions shown in the Feb 10th edition and the drop is accelerating a bit. Here is an update: This probably means that the weakness we have warned about in equities has now…

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Tops in Energy

February 11, 2021 Richard Edwards

Coming hard on the heels of the Russell 2000 and Dow Internet index tops reported n the lat edition, now there have been a couple in energy too. Heating oil futures have been extending for three days and now WTI…

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Tops in Russell 2K, Internet Index

February 10, 2021 Richard Edwards

The concerns that we wrote in the last edition have not been altered by the latest rise in Equity indices. – those worries are about the many signs of ‘froth’ that we (and everyone else) see in markets, so a…

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Signs and portents – monthly tops in Asia

February 1, 2021 Richard Edwards

There are signs in the heavens that portend an important change of weather in the markets. We pointed out in the most recent edition that there have been weekly-scale top extensions in the equity indices of the three main Asian…

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Asian stocks extend

January 18, 2021 Richard Edwards

We have been long-term bulls of China and Japan since the edition of May 8th 2020. The subsequent rise has taken the values of both up by about a quarter, which we think is just the beginning (especially in China). That…