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The markets reacted sharply to the news of a narrow win for the leave campaign in Thursday’s Brexit referendum here in the UK. Stocks fell everywhere; bonds, the dollar and gold all rose and fear now stalks the world. This…

The Brexit vote is tomorrow and our informal survey shows that it’s just as tight as the opinion polls suggest. The ‘leave’ vote is probably more solidly entrenched but that may just reflect our sample of subjects – middle-aged, middle…

US 30-year bonds, 10-year notes, German Bunds and UK Gilts have all made daily-scale top extensions in the last few days. This coincides with the newsworthy event that rising prices have also just pushed the benchmark 10-year Bund high enough…

The main Swiss equity indices made daily scale bottom extensions yesterday. This probably means that the recent weakness in Europe will now end so we should stop playing defensively and ‘step up’ our bullish approach. If you are not long,…

Soya beans and soya meal have both traded higher on the weather effects of the current El Nino on the prospect for crops in the Southern Hemisphere. Extra demand for soya in recent years has come from the increased consumer…

There has been a broad rally in commodities since early in the year and now there is reason to think that it will end hereabouts. The 5-year commodity price drop ended and this rally immediately started in late January with…

The UK and German stock markets both produced daily-scale compressions yesterday, which seem to have broken downward today.  It is too early to tell if prices will still be trading down at the end of the day, which would confirm the…

Both London (1st chart) and New York (2nd chart) sugar futures made top extensions yesterday. Sugar is mainly produced in vertically integrated agribusinesses that own the production process throughout, as is common in many types of crop.  This means that…

We have been bearish about copper prices for three main reasons: The lag between higher prices and the increase in supply they encourage is long and the processes involved are hard to stop. This leads to cyclicality – new supply emerges whether…