Today is the tenth day of the ‘short sugar’ and ‘short copper’ recommendations from the October 13th edition. We won’t keep the sugar as the top extension has only led to a pause – there is no sign of a reversal – and will only keep the copper if it closes below the new compression that formed yesterday. The trade entry dates are marked:
We also have an outstanding recommendation to be long of soy beans. This trade has already been extended once, beyond the ‘time out’ date and has since disappointed, so we are not inclined to keep it – see the trade arrowed in the middle chart. There is another reason to doubt it – soya meal has compressed, dropped and since rallied back to the compressed area – see the third chart. This is usually a strong hint to sell and so we cannot keep a long position in beans with this bear view of meal.
There are also new trades that we can take with stronger, newer signals. One is the soya meal signal shown above (we would sell soya oil instead, see below) but natural gas has also dropped heavily into a bottom extension. Buy it.
Corn and wheat both made compressions and dropped recently – see below. Now both have rallied back to those compressions – in wheat’s case slightly through it. These ‘return back up to compression’ moments are usually good chances to sell and so we would sell corn here. We would like to sell wheat too but will wait until we definitely see that it is back under the compression level before doing so. Soya oil also compressed and has since dropped after an initial false break up. Soya oil is being made in vast quantities as a result of the huge increase in demand for soya meal to feed to Chinese cattle and so is something of a ‘by-product’ these days. Whenever it is time to sell any of the soya markets we like to choose oil as our candidate and now there are bear signals in both soya oil and meal ( as mentioned third chart above) this is a good moment to do so. Sell soya oil.
