There have been new signals in commodities. WTI crude oil made a compression and pushed down below it, probably opening up a new ‘leg’ down or at least a re-visit of the low prices set at the end of January. There were signs of longer-term bottom signals made at that time, so we don’t advise a fresh short at the moment, but be prepared for some more weakness:
Copper has made a new compression, from which it has broken upward. This is an opportunity to buy again here, but we have some concerns about the longer-term prospects, so don’t risk much. Cocoa has now made a top extension, in the expiring March contract, so we would give a little more room to our recommended short sale in the May contract that dates from the February 16th edition by moving the protective stop to 3122:
In European stock markets, there have been a couple of top extensions, in Holland and Austria. These markets will undoubtedly be under upward pressure for months to come as the local version of QE takes up any slack in the demand for paper, but that doesn’t prevent dips. We think it prudent to have some short position here and our usual posture is to choose a market that has lagged a bit and sell that short. That could be France or Italy but our sly preference is to choose the FTSE as it has just crept back up to the all-time high point reached 15 years ago. If you are a curmudgeonly contrarian, sell that. If not, sell one of the other two:
