There is due to be a turn in stocks today, May 2nd that may spill over a bit into Monday May 5th. This turn is a grade 2 – of medium strength – but it does contain a small turn from the Dow longer-term series that we always mark as being of particular significance. That comes on Monday, hence the spill-over.
There was a top extension in a Norwegian stock index on Wednesday this week. Norway has sprinted ahead of other equity markets recently so we don’t think this necessarily shows that all European markets are vulnerable here:
Usually the combination of an extension near a turn makes us issue a trading recommendation, but not this time – Germany recently compressed and moved up, so we cannot become bearish of Europe as a whole yet. On the other hand, another German index is still within the boundaries of a weekly-scale compression, which could still break either way. We wait for now, but could resume our longer-term bear view of Europe at any moment:
Elsewhere, there was a daily-scale top extension in Soya meal on Wednesday too. The market has dropped already by ten cents and we would try to sell any rally here to get short – even a five cent rally from here, even intraday:
This will probably have bearish effects on other grain markets too and we have been waiting for some signal to sell short, as we have in other commodity markets. It looks as though we may have missed the opportunity to sell copper, which rallied to almost $3.14 earlier in the week before dropping sharply. We watch carefully for any more such ‘sell’ signals in all commodities.
More soon,
RE
